Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

价值共创引导乡村旅游价值链重构

［目的］通过充分发挥移动互联时代消费者对于价值链、创新链、产业链构建的作用，实现价值共创视角下乡村旅游价值链的重构，解决乡村旅游产业中消费者需求和产业供给不平衡不充分之间的矛盾，推动乡村旅游高效、有序、协调、综合发展。［方法］基于价值共创理论，通过文献研究法和系统论方法，探索性重构乡村旅游价值链。［结果］（1）价值共创引导下的乡村旅游价值链是由基本价值活动、辅助价值活动和价值共创活动共同组成，通过虚拟价值链和传统价值链的互动与融合，实现乡村旅游价值链的新价值创造。（2）价值共创活动是以虚拟价值链为基本特征，以“产消者”创新社区为表现形式，依托移动互联网时代的先进技术，创新性赋予旅游者产品生产者和旅游消费者的“产消者”双重属性，通过将消费者从传统价值链的幕后拉向幕前，实现乡村旅游价值链重构和价值增值。［结论］价值共创引导的乡村旅游价值链需要依托平台思维、共享思维和创新思维进行建设，以消费者需求为导向形成的价值链的开放和互动对于实现乡村旅游供给侧结构性改革具有重大意义。     

The Digital Transformation of Search and Recombination in the Innovation Function: Tensions and an Integrative Framework*

Search and recombination are important mechanisms in the creativity phase of innovation. Digital transformation and the resulting pervasive digitalization of the innovation function have often been associated with increasing possibilities for search and recombination. In this paper, by systematically integrating the search and recombination literature with the literature on digitalization, we demonstrate that digitalization may engender new idiosyncratic tensions in the organizational antecedents of search and recombination and, by implication, in their likely outcomes. We propose that, depending on the interactions among the idiosyncratic tensions identified herein, knowledge recombination might spur very different outcomes, including knowledge layering, knowledge integration, knowledge grafting, or even no recombination at all (which we label “search for the sake of search”). These outcomes may not always be the initially planned desired outcomes. Finally, we provide implications of our integrative framework pertaining to product development and to organizing for innovation.     

Social Security and the increasing longevity gap

Growth in overall life expectancy is straining the Social Security budget, and the gap in life expectancy between the rich and poor is widening. Motivated by these facts, this paper does four things. First, we develop a simple way to summarize the degree of progressivity in a Social Security system. Second, we show that growth in the life expectancy gap over the last few decades unwinds three-quarters of the progressivity of the Social Security system. Third, we develop simple reforms to Social Security that maintain the progressivity of the system and restore fiscal solvency. Fourth, we estimate the welfare effects of these potential reforms.     

Fair Value Exposure,Changes in Fair Value and Audit Fees: Evidence from the Australian Real Estate Industry

This paper investigates the relationship between audit fees and both fair value exposure and changes in fair value of investment properties. The study is motivated by the limited and inconclusive evidence on the effect on audit fees of full fair value reporting for illiquid assets. Using hand‐collected data from the Australian real estate industry, we find a negative (positive) association between audit fees and fair value exposure (changes in fair value of investment properties). Our findings also indicate that the use of unobservable inputs in fair value estimates for investment properties does not significantly increase audit risk and audit fees. Further, we find that audit fees are higher for firms with fair values of investment – properties estimated by external and mixed valuers – compared to firms with fair values estimated by directors alone. This study enriches the audit fee literature by documenting auditors’ pricing decisions in an area that involves significant estimation and valuation risks.     

Risk management in Canada's agricultural sector in light of COVID-19

The unexpected introduction and spread of COVID-19 has presented significant challenges for every aspect of Canadian society. Although the food and agricultural sector is positioned better than most, there are many risks that will need to be managed in the coming months. The suite of Federal-Provincial-Territorial Business Risk Management (BRM) programs delivered under the Canadian Agricultural Policy framework are meant to assist farmers in managing risks; however, there are no corresponding specialized programs for agribusinesses. The underlying structure of the BRM program was developed decades ago and certainly not with any thought to the possibility of a global pandemic. This article considers to what extent the BRM program and, more broadly, government programming will assist farmers in managing new risks. By default, the article is speculative in nature given that we are currently at the onset of the pandemic in Canada.     

Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices

A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts.